As the 2024 elections have come and gone, it is important to dissect what happened in all layers of government.
President:
Of the seven battleground states, President Trump is on track to win them all. This will put him at 312-226 electoral votes, he will also win the popular vote by about 3%. There were many decisive factors driving these results. Exit polling showed a clear split of 67% believing the economy is poor to 32% who rated it as excellent/good. On the question of who you trust more to handle the economy, 51% of voters said Trump while only 47% said Harris. Trump won 20% of African American voters. Trump won 40% of Latino voters, one of the largest changes from previous elections. 14% of voters named abortion as their most important issue, with more women having it as their top issue.
There is a lot of fingers pointing on if Biden stayed in too long, if Harris should have picked Shapiro, etc. Based on exiting polling, it is clear that immigration and Democratic messaging played a large part in Trump’s victory. Immigration has been at the forefront of many voters’ minds since 2021, with the visible affects of it manifesting itself in cities in 2022 and 2023. President Biden was never able to fully articulate Democratic border and immigration policies, despite his Executive Orders targeted at these issues. Combined with the economic challenges caused by historically high inflation over the past four years, any Democrat presidential candidate would have an uneasy path to victory in this challenging climate. While President Biden accomplished a lot in his four years, communicating to Americans and convincing them why life is better under Democrats was never his strong suit. Kamala Harris was facing an uphill battle, no matter what momentum her campaign generated, over her 107-day campaign.
Finally, the results show the re-alignment of voters and parties. The Republicans are now the party of working people and the non-college educated, while Democrats have further expanded their support in urban area and highly among educated voters. That being said, in 90% of the counties in the United States voters moved further to the right supporting Trump compared to 2020. Trump even cut into deep blue states by lessening the Democrat margin of victory in New York, New Jersey, and California. Trump also increased his margin of victory from 2020 in the Republican strongholds of Florida and Texas.
Senate:
Right now, the Senate is at 53 Republicans with Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio firmly in the GOP column. Senator Baldwin (D-WI) and Senator Elect Slotkin (D-MI) have won. Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) has lost, and Nevada remains too close to call. In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Senator Jacky Rosen looks poised to hold her seat. Arizona hasn’t been called yet but is likely to go with Democrat Rueben Gallego. With Nevada and Arizona going for the Democrats, the current Republican majority would be 53-47, . Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all had a large number of ticket splitters who voted for the Democrat Senator and the Republican Presidential candidate.
Of note with Senator Brown (D-OH) and Senator Casey (D-PA) losses, the Democrats are facing an unprecedented number of open seats on the powerful Finance Committee. Democrats will also have a new lead at Senate Banking with Sen. Brown’s loss. The Banking Committee authorizes mass transit. and will the center of work on new lighter regulations on cryptocurrency promised by the Trump Administration The questions remain will Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) leave Armed Services, will Senator Mark Warner (D- VA) leave Intelligence to take the reins of the Banking Committee, or will it fall to Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who currently sits on the committee and is next in line.
The next Senate will reflect the diversity of the USA with Senator Elect Gallego, Senator Elect Moreno, Senator Elect Kim, Senator Elect Alsobrooks, and Senator Elect Blunt Rochester joining the other Freshman in the 119th. This will mark the first time two black females are in the Senate at the same time, and the first time a Korean American is in the Senate. Senator Elect Moreno is also the first Senator to be born in Latin America.
House of Representatives:
Transportation Committee Problem Solvers Lose
The House is currently at 211 Republicans with 199 Dems. With races still being called, it looks like the Republicans will retain their slim majority, winning anywhere from 218 to 221 seats. Races to note include Josh Riley (D-NY) defeating Transportation and Infrastructure Problem Solver Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also in New York, Democrats picked up Brandon Williams’s (R-NY) seat with John Mannion (D-NY) winning 54% to 46 %. In downstate New York, Transportation and Infrastructure Committee member Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) lost to Laura Gillen, with Democrats ultimately netting 3 seats in New York.
Pennsylvania proved to be an unlikely spot for Republican to pick up seats. So far, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) and Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) have lost. In Michigan, Democrats were unable to hang onto the open Elissa Slotkin seat in Michigan with Tom Barrett winning the seat.
While New York and California were the focuses for Democrat efforts to win the majority, California is not look as promising as Democrats hoped. California is notoriously slow in counting votes, but right now in key races in Orange County both Rep. Steel (R-CA) and Scott Baugh (R-CA), who is running in the Porter open seat, are ahead. Other races to watch include Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), and Rep. John Duarte (R-CA).
In Oregon, Problem Solver Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-OR), who is a Member of T&I, looks likely to lose to her Democratic opponent Janelle Bynum.
As races fall into focus, Arizona could be the deciding factor for the 119th with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) facing tough challenges. Amish Shah is slightly behind Schweikert, and Kirsten Engel is slightly ahead of Ciscomani.
Although all races are not called, Republicans are likely to maintain their majority in the 119th Congress with a similar or even smaller majority than they are operating under now. Republicans have had difficulty operating under a slim majority, ousting one Speaker and losing key votes on the floor. Republicans will likely have 218 to 221 seats. Despite Republicans likely holding the entire government, a small house majority means that bi-partisan compromise will continue to be important, the voters stated that in their results on Tuesday, and the House will need to lead the way. Look to the centrist New Democrats as well as the bi-partisan Problem Solvers Coalition to find ways to work in a bi-partisan fashion on issues like the reauthorization of the highway bill in 2026, permitting reform, tax policy that may not fit into TCJA focused dealing with overtime and tips, family leave, and potentially immigration reform.
There are many other races to note. Indications are that Nick Begich could defeat Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK), a T&I member. Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-NJ), a problem solver and T&I member, beat back a very spirited challenge by Sue Altman. New Dem and T&I Member Emilia Sykes (D-OH) won her race. Blue Dog Co-Chair Jared Golden (D-ME) won, and Blue Dog Co-Chair Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) is ahead. New Dems Andrea Salinas (D-OR), Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) and Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) have both secured second terms.
The next 7 weeks:
The next few weeks before the 119th Congress starts will be interesting. Congress needs to deal with government funding by December 20th and there are a number of “must pass” bills such as the Farm Bill, the Defense Authorization, and tax extenders that should be addressed. While some might want to push funding into next year, there is a hope that saner minds prevail, and that President Trump will want to have Speaker Johnson clear the decks so that next year they can start on Trump priorities instead of budget battles.
Leadership elections will take place in Congress’s first two weeks back in November, with Republicans going first. The biggest election on the docket is for a new Republican Senate Majority Leader. With Sen. Mitch McConnell’s retirement, Sens John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rick Scott (R-FL) are vying for the top position. Sens Thune and Cornyn are believed to be in the lead, but Sen. Scott aligns more closely with Trump’s policies. The election is cast via secret ballot, making it one of the only elections largely free from outside influence.
House Republicans will likely re-elect Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). Democrats will elect Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to their top spot. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will remain the Senate Democratic leader.
119th Congress:
Once the majority is determined, we will understand the roadmap for next year. If it remains on track for Republicans to keep the House, expect in the first 100 days for the House Republicans to pass a budget resolution to establish the reconciliation procedure for the House to take the first step on re-authorizing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. With reconciliation, Republicans can pass budget measures with only a majority in the Senate. These budget line items must be directly related to the Federal budget and can be vetoed by Democrats. This would cause these laws to be passed with 60 votes in the Senate. President Trump will be in the unique position of being able to put his imprint on his landmark piece of legislation TCJA twice. Chairman Smith has begun the work this year with his Tax Teams and has notified his members to be ready to go quickly in the new year.
In the Senate, Republican leaders have already expressed their interest in beginning confirmation hearings for President Trump’s cabinet soon after the start of the Congress on January 3, 2025, so that key positions such as Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State and Secretary of the Treasury can be confirmed on Inauguration day.
Expect the first 100 Days of the 119th Congress to be exciting and tiring.
